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Mets tied with Astros in updated World Series odds; what are their chances if deGrom & Scherzer return?

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The New York Mets World Series odds in 2022 are the shortest they have been in a long time. New York didn’t just make a splash in the offseason – the riches of Steve Cohen caused a tidal wave across the rest of the league, led by the signing of Max Scherzer.

Remarkably, though, the Mets are flying, 5.5 clear at the top of the National League East despite Scherzer making just eight starts. Jacob deGrom is yet to take the mound this season.

Mets World Series odds 2022

The Mets odds to win the World Series in 2022 are dependent on Scherzer and deGrom returning, of course. Carlos Carrasco, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker have done a good job of stabilizing the rotation without the co-aces, but this is not sustainable for the rest of the regular year, let alone into the postseason.

Only the Dodgers and Yankees have shorter World Series odds than the Mets. They are tied with the Astros at BetMGM.

For a team to be in this position without arguably the two best starters in the sport is astonishing. It’s also taken a smidgen of fortune – the Mets are fifth in xwOBA from their pitchers and ninth in xwOBA from their hitters. They have three more wins than their runs scored and allowed would suggest. The numbers show New York to be a very good rather than elite team, but that doesn’t matter.


Wins on the board

This is a team with wins on the board and two aces to return. Jeff McNeil might cool off. Walker and David Peterson have ridden some luck. Still, Francisco Lindor and Eduardo Escobar are bound to hit better than this. Pete Alonso maintaining this for a season is not far-fetched, and Cohen’s riches built a deep line up which can keep producing.

The Braves have got rolling, even putting together a 14-game winning streak. There is still a comfortable cushion there. This scorching start has earned the Mets a margin for error both in the division race and in the wildcard tussle should the Braves burn past them in the second half of the campaign. That outcome might be a longshot at the moment, however, with New York likely to get stronger with Scherzer and deGrom on the way back. Who knows what they manage to add at the trade deadline.

Baseball Reference currently gives the Mets a 6.3% chance at the World Series. Fangraphs has them at 96.9% to make the playoffs.

Made for the Playoffs

It’s the second number that is crucial right now. Having Scherzer and deGrom healthy for the postseason will make the Mets a properly intimidating opponent. While the Yankees rotation has rightly garnered the plaudits in New York thus far, the Mets could roll out something every bit as dominant in October. The offence can beat you in different ways; they are second in wRC+, sixth in line drive rate, and lead the league in OBP.

These Mets are grinding out regular season wins. The luxury of Cohen’s wealth is not only the big names, but the depth in all areas of the roster. Without their top two pitchers, the rotation is still solid, when Lindor slumps, there are enough other good hitters to pick up the slack. The bullpen has quietly been among the best in the sport.


Able to hit the ball hard, get on base and with the potential for a fearsome rotation, this team is made for October. No team will be excited to face the Mets this postseason – their 2022 World Series odds are well-deserved.

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