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Based on last season, it’s going to be difficult to make MLB free agent contract predictions in 2023. There were 11 players who got nine-figure contracts last winter, so who knows how high the dollar values will get this winter with a free-agent class that’s arguably better.
Edwin Diaz has already re-signed with the Mets for $102 million, which is a record deal for a closer. In other words, if you thought MLB free agency contract predictions in 2022 were tough, hold onto your hat.
MLB free agent contract predictions 2023
This is certainly an interesting time for new baseball fans who might need MLB free agency explained. With the shortened and largely fan-free 2020 season firmly in the rearview mirror, teams aren’t going to be as afraid to spend big money as they might have a year or two ago.
Of course, with several massive contracts due to be dished out this winter, we thought it was the perfect time for some MLB free-agency salary predictions.
10. Justin Verlander, 2 years, $80 million
Even though he’ll be 40 on opening day next season, Justin Verlander is still worthy of a multi-year deal. The guy came back from Tommy John surgery and still had one of the best seasons of his career.
That could get him a two-year deal worth as much as $80 million, assuming he wants to commit to pitching two more seasons in the majors. It would make the most sense for him to stay in Houston. But the Yankees and Dodgers could also be desperate enough after falling short in 2022 to take a chance on Verlander if they think he can be a difference-maker.
9. Willson Contreras, 5 years, $110 million
Over the summer, Willson Contreras was one of the best players available for trade, although the Cubs ended up not moving him. Now Chicago is likely to lose him in free agency anyway.
Contreras is a true two-way catcher who would be considered an upgrade on most teams. There are likely to be over half a dozen teams with meaningful interest in Contreras, which should help him ultimately score a nine-figure deal. The Cardinals could be an interesting option within Chicago’s division. But the Mets, Tigers, White Sox, Twins, and Red Sox are all teams that could make a push for Contreras.
8. Jacob deGrom, 3 years, $120 million
After opting out of his deal with the Mets, Jacob deGrom is on the free-agent market for the first time. Even though he’s struggled to stay healthy in recent years, everyone knows that deGrom is arguably the best pitcher in baseball when he’s healthy.
While his age could prevent him from getting more than a three-year deal, our MLB free agency salary predictions view deGrom as someone who could get an annual salary of close to $40 million per year.
Obviously, the Mets are hoping to keep him. But deGrom won’t give them a hometown discount, which means the Dodgers will make a push while the Rangers could be a sleeper.
7. Carlos Rodon, 5 years, $130 million
In a pool of older pitchers, Carlos Rodon will only be 30 on opening day in 2023, which will make him an interesting free agent to watch after opting out of his deal with the Giants. The southpaw has come into his own over the past couple of seasons and become a legitimate frontline starter.
At his age, five years should be the minimum contract length for Rodon. This could end up being a bidding war between the incumbent Giants and the Dodgers. However, the Mets and Yankees could also get involved with the White Sox potentially pushing to bring Rodon back to the Windy City.
6. Brandon Nimmo, 7 years, $140 million
A relatively weak year for outfielders in free agency should lead to a massive contract for Brandon Nimmo. Of course, it’s hard to say that he hasn’t earned it given how much he’s improved defensively and the energy he brings to the ballpark every day.
He’s easily the cream of the crop as far as outfielders are concerned, which is why someone will have to commit seven years to get him. That team could be the Mets, although perhaps not. The Tigers and Rangers look ready to spend on a player like Nimmo. The Giants and Red Sox are also teams to watch because they need help in the outfield. Finally, the Mariners could be a wild card in the Nimmo sweepstakes.
5. Dansby Swanson, 7 years, $200 million
Dansby Swanson is actually the youngest of the big-time shortstops on the open market this winter. That may not give him the biggest contract of that group, as he only came into his own offensively this past season.
But Swanson is now a Gold Glove shortstop with speed. Of the shortstops who are set up for a big payday this winter, Swanson might be the most likely to stay with his old team. However, the Braves have other options as well, which could allow the Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, or Phillies to join the mix for Swanson.
4. Carlos Correa, 8 years, $220 million
It’s hard to explain why Carlos Correa didn’t get this type of deal last winter. Correa didn’t exactly boost his value a ton during his one year in Minnesota. The Astros obviously had no problem replacing him with Jeremy Pena.
But Correa didn’t hurt his chances to land a big contract this offseason. After all, he’s only 28 and is an accomplished shortstop. With our MLB free agent contract predictions for 2023, we expect Correa to get the type of contract that won’t entice him to opt out after one year.
Of course, the Twins would like to have him back, although they may not be able to compete financially with the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Cubs, or some other teams that could be interested in Correa.
3. Xander Bogaerts, 8 years, $260 million
The Red Sox better hope that they find a way to re-sign Xander Bogaerts, which is something they failed to do previously. Bogaerts is now going to be on the open market, allowing him to consider his other options.
Either way, he’s going to end up getting a great contract. If the Red Sox don’t re-sign him, the Braves could sign Bogaerts to replace Dansby Swanson or the Dodgers could help re-unite him with Mookie Betts. The Cardinals, Giants, and Twins are also teams not to overlook with Bogaerts.
2. Trea Turner, 9 years, $280 million
It’s a crowded field at shortstop, but Trea Turner is arguably the best of the bunch. With the way he’s able to impact games with his speed, the other shortstops in this free-agent class can’t match him.
Turner is also a career .302 hitter and is one year removed from winning a batting title. In fairness, the other shortstops in this class have a lot going for them as well. But in our MLB free agent contract predictions for 2023, we see Turner getting more years and a little more money than the rest.
The only question is whether he wants to stay with the Dodgers or perhaps head back to the East Coast, making the Braves, Phillies, and Red Sox options as well.
1. Aaron Judge, 10 years, $330 million
Coming off a record-setting season, Aaron Judge is going to get a crazy amount of money this offseason. He’s probably a little too old to get the same length of contract that Bryce Harper got a few years ago, but the dollar value should be similar.
The Yankees are going to be the favorites to keep him because he knows the organization and they undoubtedly have the money. But they’re not going to be alone in their pursuit of him, as the Dodgers will surely be involved, as could some other teams.
With multiple bidders, Judge could get himself a 10-year deal, and if that happens, there’s no way the money stays under $300 million.
