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As Opening Day nears and preparations for the regular season are made, a lot of attention is being given to MLB win totals in 2022. We are grateful for a 162-game campaign after a bitter lockout which threatened the season.
MLB win totals 2022
It’s been a wild offseason, which we’ve covered in our MLB free agency grades. Some big trades and free agent deals have had a considerable impact on MLB win total over unders.
Expanding the playoffs has emboldened more franchises with postseason dreams. An eventful free agency period hasn’t completely altered the balance of the league, but it has tweaked the outlook for numerous organizations. Those in the small group of rebuilders still have plenty to look forward to in 2022 too, with star prospects like Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr set to appear in The Show.
We’ve made picked out our favorite over unders in MLB win total odds (these MLB win totals for 2022 are courtesy of Betfair).
Tigers – over 77.5
It seems harsh that MLB win projections have the Tigers below .500. This is a team which went 37-34 in the second half of 2021 and has unquestionably got better over the offseason even beyond the headline acquisitions of Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez.
It’s no surprise Detroit featured in our 2022 preseason predictions. This is a team ready to break free from its rebuild, combining young talent and impactful veterans in Rodriguez, Baez, Robbie Grossman and Andrew Chafin.
Spencer Torkelson is on his way. As is Riley Greene. Throw in some development from their young arms and we could have a playoff team on our hands.
The American League Central is still a weak division, allowing Detroit to rack up wins against the Royals, Twins and Guardians. Of course there are holes on the roster, and they are reliant on a lot of inexperienced players stepping up, but with how they played in the second half, it would be a real disappointment if the Tigers win fewer than 76 in 2022.
Padres – under 88.5
The Padres fell far short of expectations in 2021. They are a standout in MLB record predictions in 2022 once again, given a win total of 88.5. That’s despite Fernando Tatis Jr.missing the first few weeks through injury, and failing to move either of Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers.
Luke Voit bolsters the offense, and Luis Campusano and MacKenzie Gore are going to be in the Majors this season. It was a quiet winter compared to recent forays into free agency, but the Padres should be better.
After winning just 79 last year, though, the question is whether they can be 10 wins better. That’s a big leap; it is very dependent on Yu Darvish and Blake Snell not only being available, but finding their pre-San Diego form. They pitched under 300 innings combined last season and their respective ERAs started with a four.
PECOTA has San Diego at 91. Depth Charts has 88. There’s a chance this team bounces back in a big way, but there’s a lot of downside here after what was a very disappointing 2022 season. Given the dominance of the Dodgers and how competitive the Giants should be again, we like the under here.
Mariners – over 83.5
Adding Robbie Ray, Jesse Winker and Adam Frazier, the Seattle Mariners clearly got better despite Kyle Seager retiring and Yusei Kikuchi departing. Anything they get from Eugenio Suarez will be a bonus.
The Mariners won 90 games last year. Sure, the Rangers and Angels will be better, but the Athletics will be far worse and the Astros should be weaker without Carlos Correa. Their 83.5 mark in MLB win totals 2022 really stands out.
Fingers and toes are crossed in Seattle that Jarred Kelenic can be a productive player in 2022. There are other prospects nearing Major League-ready status, too.
Maybe the rotation behind Ray will concern some. Perhaps it’s hard to have confidence in this offense. Ultimately, though, the Mariners took a big step forward last year, and they should be in the wildcard mix again even with some regression.
Cardinals – over 84.5
The Cardinals have won fewer than 85 games in just one full regular season since 2007. While they are unlikely to pick up where they left off with a 46-26 second half and a 23-9 September/October, this number is clearly too low for St Louis.
The line-up possesses star power in possibly the best corner infield pair in the sport. It’s deep too, thanks to Corey Dickerson, Yadier Molina and others.
Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes missing the start of the season is a bit of a worry. A rejuvenated Adam Wainwright can lead the rotation in Flaherty’s absence, however, and the Red Birds can feel relatively content with the rest of their staff.
A team heavy on veterans means we know what we’re getting from most of the core. St Louis also benefits from a weak division with the Reds, Cubs and Pirates all rebuilding. They went just 26-23 against that trio last year – we can expect a much higher winning percentage in those matchups in 2022.
Some MLB win projections have the Cards at around .500. We’re much higher on them – take the over here.
Red Sox – under 85.5
Boston won 92 games last year, cruising past their win total. They added Trevor Story in the offseason. It sounds like a team which should easily be an over pick in MLB win totals 2022.
Not so fast.
Boston’s line-up risks being very top heavy unless Bobby Dalbec can maintain his second half tear. That’s a lot of expectation on Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Story and Rafael Devers to produce at an All-Star level throughout the season.
The rotation has lost Eduardo Rodriguez. The bullpen has lost Adam Ottavino. Chris Sale is missing time with a stress fracture. To say there are question marks about the pitching staff behind Nathan Eovaldi would be an understatement.
Four teams in the AL East won 91+ games last year. Boston looks like the fourth-best team in the division. While that clearly doesn’t guarantee they will be under 85.5 wins in 2022, there’s a great deal of uncertainty about the starting pitching. This roster could languish around .500 even with a supercharged offense.
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