Updated Padres World Series odds: Is San Diego good value to win it all?

Now that the San Diego Padres have the home-field advantage in the NLCS, it’s a good time to look at the Padres World Series odds in 2022.

Despite an uneven regular season, the Padres’ playoff chances have always been good this season, as the franchise has made a strong commitment to winning in recent years. But in a wild and unpredictable postseason, anything can happen.

Since there haven’t been many Padres playoff chances over the years with San Diego last reaching the World Series in 1998, they need to seize this opportunity.

Padres World Series odds 2022

According to FanDuel, the Padres’ World Series odds in 2022 are +500 after Game 1 of the NLCS. They were only slightly better than the Phillies’ price ahead of the series.

All odds taken October 19 at FanDuel Sportsbook

With a tight series ahead of us, let’s look at an NLCS preview and take a closer look at the chances of the Padres winning the World Series in 2022.

The big three

San Diego’s rotation of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove might not be the best playoff pitchers of all time, but they’ve gotten the job done so far. The Padres have won five games in the postseason thus far, and those pitchers are responsible for four of those five wins.

That means they’re going deep into games without tempting manager Bob Melvin to pull them in favor of a deep and capable bullpen. With one fewer off-day than usual if the NLDS goes seven games, having three starters who are capable of going deep into games can be a huge advantage for the Padres.

Obviously, none of the three has been perfect thus far. All four of the runs Darvish has allowed in the first two rounds have come on home runs, yielding four long balls in 12 innings of work.

Snell struggled with his command against the Mets in the Wild Card Round before pitching better against the Dodgers.

Musgrove, meanwhile, looked invincible against the Mets but was a little more human when facing the Dodgers. San Diego also faces a question when the team needs a fourth starting pitcher after Mike Clevinger fell flat during the NLDS. Nevertheless, the Padres should feel good about where they stand with the trio of Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove.

Waiting for the middle

The amazing part of San Diego’s playoff run is the Padres have done it without some of their best hitters performing. Manny Machado has made the biggest impact thus far, hitting .296 with two homers and five RBIs in seven games. But outside of Machado’s contributions, the biggest hits have come from Trent Grisham and Austin Nola at the bottom of the order. Grisham has three home runs – in addition to his excellent defense – while Nola (like Grisham) is 8 for 21 (.381) with two doubles and four RBIs.

Meanwhile, the heavy hitters in San Diego’s lineup have been a disappointment. Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, and Wil Myers have combined to go 6 for 57 (.105) in the postseason. Even Juan Soto is just 7 for 28 with one extra-base hit.

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The silver lining is that a least a couple of those hitters are bound to come alive during the NLCS. If that happens and the Padres keep getting contributions from Grisham and Nola, they’ll be in good shape. However, the Padres World Series odds in 2022 largely come down to the likes of Soto, Bell, and others in the middle of the order producing so Machado doesn’t have to do all of the heavy lifting.

Closing it out

If the Padres hold a lead late in a playoff game, they are one of the safest bets to keep that lead and win. The San Diego bullpen has been outstanding during the first two rounds of the postseason. If you take away one troublesome inning from Adrian Morejon, San Diego relievers have only allowed two runs in 24.2 innings. That might be the biggest sign that the Padres are capable of winning a championship this year.

Closer Josh Hader looks as electric as he did when he first burst onto the scene and helped guide the Brewers to the NLCS in 2018. He’s yielded just one hit in 4.1 innings of work. Meanwhile, Robert Suarez, a 31-year-old rookie, has come out of nowhere to become San Diego’s best reliever.

He’s thrown six scoreless innings in the postseason, allowing just three hits. The likes of Luis Garcia, Tim Hill, and Nick Martinez have also continued to serve as reliable bullpen arms after posting solid numbers during the regular season. As long as the Padres continue to get this kind of effort from their bullpen, they will be a force in the postseason.

Will the Padres winn the 2022 World Series?

Even if the Padres should be considered a serious threat to win the World Series, that doesn’t mean they’re going to win it. Obviously, knocking off the Dodgers in the NLDS was a huge step in the right direction.

It allowed the Padres to reach the NLCS, where they will have the home-field advantage over the Phillies. However, there are still lingering questions about San Diego’s title hopes.

San Diego’s rotation is deep, but it hasn’t been as dominant as Philadelphia’s tandem of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola or the young arms the Astros have showcased during the American League playoffs.

The Padres have also yet to see their lineup fire on all cylinders, which has been a problem for much of the season, even after adding Soto and Bell at the trade deadline. That is still something that needs to change if San Diego is going to win a championship. While things are undoubtedly looking up for the Padres at the moment, even if they get past the Phillies in the NLCS, look for San Diego to fall to the Astros in the 2022 World Series.

The Padres to lose to the Astros in the World Series is +550 at PointsBet