The regular season is just around the corner, so it’s officially time to make our predictions for NBA win totals 2022-23.
All rosters are more or less set, and even though there will be some minor transactions throughout the season, we don’t expect any blockbuster deals.
NBA win totals 2022-23
Needless to say, the offseason is the best time to make our NBA over under picks. We can get the best value on every pick, as the teams have yet to take the floor and prove what they’re capable of. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our NBA win totals best bets for all 30 teams.
Celtics – Under 53.5
The NBA win totals best bets begin with a rather controversial pick. I mean, the Boston Celtics could’ve easily topped the 54-win mark with Ime Udoka, but we just don’t know how they’ll fare under new management. Udoka was a player’s coach and he got them to really buy into his system.
Of course, the guys are also familiar with Joe Mazzulla, but it might take a while before they find their groove. The Celtics got off to a rocky start last season before really turning things around in December, so we believe there’s some value fading them in the midst of the Udoka controversy.
Bucks – Under 52.5
The Milwaukee Bucks will start the season without Khris Middleton, who’s still nursing a wrist injury. And while they’re still stacked with talent, Middleton is their second-best player, and his absence shouldn’t be overlooked, especially with a questionable coach like Mike Budenholzer.
The Bucks will still rally and most likely finish with a top-4 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they’ll be contenders for as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo is out there and healthy. But they could also be in for a tough start to the season.
Clippers – Over 52.5
The Los Angeles Clippers’ NBA wins over under 2022-23 is sitting at 52.5 wins, which we believe won’t be enough to measure their success next season. They have one of the best coaches in the game in Tyronn Lue and will have their band back to full strength from day one.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be back on the floor, and John Wall looks in great shape despite missing all that time with multiple injuries. They’re the biggest threat to having the best record in the West, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see them top 60 wins.
Suns – Under 52.5
The Phoenix Suns have been one of the biggest powerhouses in the league for two years straight, so it’s not a surprise to see their projected NBA win totals 2023 at 52.5 wins. However, this team has gone through a rocky offseason, and their statements on media day were far from encouraging.
Aside from the Robert Sarver controversy, Jae Crowder publicly demanding a trade might take a toll in the locker room, not to mention all the Deandre Ayton situation and how poorly they managed his contract extension. Maybe it’s just a gut feeling, but the Suns may regress this season.
Warriors – Over 51.5
The Golden State Warriors are officially back. They’re the reigning champions and must be respected as such. They’ve been nearly unbeatable at home when they’re at full strength and have enough pieces to make up for losing Otto Porter Jr, Gary Payton II, and Juan Toscano-Anderson.
Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga are both ready to embrace a bigger role, and James Wiseman will finally be healthy. Their championship core remains intact, and both Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole will be playing to sign a contract extension.
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Nets – Over 50.5
The NBA wins over under 2022-23 for the Brooklyn Nets is sitting at 50.5, which we believe is quite low for a team with untapped potential. On paper, they have enough talent and firepower to beat the 2016 Warriors for the best record in NBA regular season history, but paper doesn’t win games.
If they put their egos aside, Ben Simmons is back to doing Ben Simmons things, and Steve Nash takes a big leap as a coach next season, then they could be nearly unbeatable. That’s a lot of ‘Ifs,’ and they’ve sure found new ways to disappoint every year.
Sixers – Over 50.5
The Philadelphia 76ers had a nearly-perfect offseason. They should be considered a dark horse to run away with the Eastern Conference, even though Doc Rivers has always been hard to trust. This time, however, Daryl Morey has put together a fool-proof roster, so even Rivers’ terrible rotations should thrive.
The Sixers are stacked and deep at every single position. They added more shooting and more toughness, and their backcourt of Tyrese Maxey and James Harden should be nearly-unstoppable. Add Joel Embiid to that mix, and you have a team that will give you a run for your money night in and night out.
Nuggets – Over 49.5
The NBA projected win totals for the Denver Nuggets sit at 49.5 wins. That’s quite reasonable, considering they’ll get both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back, so there’s no way this team is worse than they were last season, even if they’re not the same players they were before falling with injuries.
Nikola Jokic has proven that he can single-handedly lead this team to success, at least in the regular season. He’ll now have a much improved supporting cast, and Bones Hyland seems ready to break out and lead the way as their new starting PG. They still need another star to go deep in the playoffs, though.
Grizzlies – Under 48.5
Not to hate on the Memphis Grizzlies, but the projected NBA win totals 2022-23 at 48.5 wins seems like a bit of a reach this season. They’ve been quite consistent and have found ways to win even without Ja Morant, but they’ll miss their best defender in Jaren Jackson Jr for a long stretch of the season.
More than that, the Western Conference will be much better in 2022-23 than it was in the prior campaign. We still believe the Grizzlies will be in the mix for a playoff spot all season long, but topping 49 wins with that kind of competition may be too much to ask right now, all things considered.
Mavericks – Over 48.5
The Dallas Mavericks lost Jalen Brunson in the offseason, which was a big blow as he took plenty of pressure off Luka Doncic‘s shoulders. Still, adding Christian Wood was a big plus for a team that was lacking size and an interior presence.
But even though we’re still not completely sold on the Mavericks, Jason Kidd has really improved as a coach, and Doncic is a top-five player in this league. So, we expect him to lead this team to a top-five playoff berth even if he has to do all the heavy lifting.
Heat – Under 48.5
The Miami Heat have one of the best coaches in the game in Erik Spoelstra. But their roster didn’t get better ahead of this season and losing P.J. Tucker could be a massive blow to their defense. They were in the mix for Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell but couldn’t land either.
Pat Riley will continue to try and make moves, but they’re unlikely to land a big-time player at this point. So, with Kyle Lowry getting older, Jimmy Butler‘s injury proneness, and Tyler Herro‘s regression, the Heat could find a tough time getting to 50 wins next season. They’ll still be a playoff team, though.
Preseason NBA win totals can be found at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Timberwolves – Over 48.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves broke the trade market by giving up everything to get Rudy Gobert. Personally, I didn’t love the move, but they have the potential to be one of the most exciting teams to watch next season. They were right on track with Anthony Edwards breaking out in year two, and he may only get better now.
Even though I still have my doubts about this team’s ceiling, the NBA win totals predictions at 48.5 seem reasonable. I’m going to give them the nod and trust them to go over this number, assuming Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns help with each other’s flaws.
Cavaliers – Over 47.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers’ NBA win totals in 2022-23 didn’t change all that much since the Donovan Mitchell trade, which we believe is absurd. Yes, his numbers weren’t all that better compared to Collin Sexton‘s, but he’s still more than capable of taking this already-promising team to a whole new level.
The new-look Cavaliers will be a must-watch television night in and night out. They have a generational talent in Evan Mobley locking down the paint next to Jarrett Allen, and that one-two punch out of the backcourt can combine for 60 points any given night.
Hawks – Over 45.5
The Atlanta Hawks got way better ahead of the season. Pairing Trae Young with Dejounte Murray was one of the most impactful moves of the offseason, as they now added an elite defender and playmaker next to one of the best scorers in the game. They’ll help each other out and annul each other’s flaws.
The Hawks were a disappointing team last season, so we expect them to bounce back and go over the 45.5 projected win total. They have plenty of length with Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, and John Collins rounding out the starting five, and they could be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA with that kind of personnel.
Lakers – Over 45.5
Not many people will have the Los Angeles Lakers going over 45.5 win totals on their NBA win totals best bets, but we’re not like many people. All jokes aside, it’s easy to doubt and wonder whether the Lakers are a better team now than they were last season. Dennis Schroder and Patrick Beverley were solid additions, but some issues are still there.
However, the Lakers should be better with a fully healthy Anthony Davis. If he stays healthy, there’s no reason to believe he and LeBron James can’t combine for at least 46 wins, although we don’t expect them to top the 50-win plateau. That could change if they finally trade Russell Westbrook.
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Raptors – Under 45.5
The Toronto Raptors are one of the league’s most promising and entertaining young teams. But both Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby have been in trade rumors, and Masai Ujiri will favor strengthening the roster for the future ahead of contending right now.
Scottie Barnes is a two-way superstar in the making, and they’ll be quite tough, especially at home. But given how other Eastern Conference teams strengthened their rosters for next season. The young Raptors will face an uphill battle to make the playoffs.
Pelicans – Under 44.5
The New Orleans Pelicans should be a lot better next season, but we still believe they’ll fail to reach that NBA wins over under in 2022-23. They should flirt with .500 basketball throughout the season and even upset some contenders, but we’ve seen this story before.
Zion Williamson can’t stay healthy, and neither can Brandon Ingram. They were much better with CJ McCollum in town, but the Pelicans always find a way to disappoint when people are high on them. The West is stacked, and they’re not ready yet.
Bulls – Over 42.5
The Chicago Bulls made two solid signings in Goran Dragic and Andre Drummond. They’re a deeper team now, and Patrick Williams is healthy and ready to take a step forward. However, Lonzo Ball continues to be a reason for concern.
The Bulls were the best team in the East when Lonzo and Alex Caruso were healthy, so not having him on the court will certainly hurt their chances. We still believe they’ll be a playoff contender but could fall to the play-in unless DeMar DeRozan has another MVP-caliber year.
Blazers – Under 39.5
The Portland Trail Blazers tried to reshape their roster around Damian Lillard, but it’s not a surprise to see their NBA win totals 2022-23 fall below 40. They’re still not good enough to keep up with the rest of the powerhouses of the West.
Lillard is one of the best scorers on Earth, and he’ll continue to rave about how loyal he is and how he wants to stay in Portland forever. But the same can’t be said of his teammates, and Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic could be prime trade candidates.
Knicks – Under 39.5
Tom Thibodeau enters the season on the hot seat, and for very good reason. The New York Knicks spent a ton of cash to build one of the most mediocre teams in the East, and one that doesn’t suit well with their defensive-minded coach.
All things considered, this was one of the easiest NBA over under picks for the season. Julius Randle regressed, RJ Barrett is an overpaid starter, and Jalen Brunson just fleeced them big time. Their ceiling is being a play-in team in 2022/23.
Hornets – Over 36.5
We have the Charlotte Hornets going over the total as one of our NBA win totals best bets for next season. The reasoning behind this is simple: LaMelo Ball is a superstar in the making, and there’s a chance Miles Bridges is back with the team.
We don’t condone Bridges’ actions by any means, but sports are ruthless and a business. At the end of the day, the Hornets might just wait until this scandal goes away before bringing him back, and topping 37 wins is feasible with him on the court.
Wizards – Under 35.5
Bradley Beal took a page out of John Wall’s book and signed a massive contract extension just to miss the playoffs every year. One would think the Washington Wizards would’ve known better by now, but bad teams do what bad teams do.
The Wizards can’t help themselves, and it’s the same old story with them every year. They’ll go through a hot stretch and look like a legit playoff team and then fall back to Earth as per usual. We believe they’ll trade most of their roster by the deadline.
Kings – Under 33.5
The Sacramento Kings should fall below their NBA wins over under 2022-23 projection. Why? Well, because this team never fails to disappoint, so we always think they’ll be as bad as expected, if not worse. Even if they thrive, the front office will find a way to mess things up.
De’Aaron Fox hit a wall in his development, and Domantas Sabonis can’t single-handedly lead this team to contention in the Wild Wild West. Keegan Murray looks like an exciting prospect, but you just cannot trust the Kings to do anything right.
Pistons – Over 29.5
The Detroit Pistons put together an elite set of prospects. Then, they traded for a serviceable veteran in Bojan Bogdanovic, proving that they’re ready to try and make a playoff run now and turn their culture around immediately.
And even though we don’t think they have enough experience to make the playoffs yet, we strongly believe they’ll go over the NBA projected win totals. They’ll pull off multiple upsets, and could even flirt with a spot in the play-in tournament.
Magic – Under 26.5
The NBA win totals 2023 projections have the Orlando Magic falling short of 26.5 wins, and we agree with that assessment. Yes, Paolo Banchero is a potential superstar, but other than him and Franz Wagner, they don’t have that much firepower.
The Magic have a solid young backcourt with Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony, but whether they can coexist on the floor is still a big question. To be fair, they’re right on track and have done things well in the Draft, but they need more veterans.
Jazz – Under 24.5
The Utah Jazz will be the team with the biggest regression this season. That’s why it’s not a surprise to see the NBA over under picks at just 24.5 wins. I mean, they parted ways with Bojan Bogdanovic, Donovan Mitchell, and Rudy Gobert.
The Jazz will also likely move on from Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley before the trade deadline. They have gathered a plethora of draft picks, so they have no intention of competing for the foreseeable future. Sorry, Collin Sexton.
Pacers – Under 23.5
The Indiana Pacers will be one of the worst teams in the NBA in 2023. They will likely finish with the worst record in the Eastern Conference and maybe even the second-worst in the NBA as a whole. But hey, at least they have Tyrese Haliburton locked in for the future, and that’s exciting.
The Pacers need to find a new home for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. They could be in the mix to absorb bad, expiring contracts in return for multiple Draft picks, so don’t expect to know many of the names they’ll play by the end of the season.
Thunder – Over 23.5
Sam Presti vowed the Oklahoma City Thunder weren’t going to lose games that much longer. He knows he can’t risk losing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, so he better stand by that word and start pushing his team to go over the projected NBA win totals 2022-23 of 23.5.
Even without Chet Holmgren, the Thunder are a much better team this season compared to last year. Josh Giddey continues to improve, and this young team is hungry and ready to fight for a spot in the play-in. That’s a stretch, but 30-32 wins seem feasible for them.
Rockets – Over 23.5
Just like the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder, the Houston Rockets want a culture turnaround right now. That means no tanking, even though they will have a young, unproven team. That’s why we think they’ll top their projection and go over 23.5 wins.
The Rockets aren’t a good team right now, but they have an elite set of prospects and could be good way sooner than most people expect. They’ll fight hard night in and night out, and they don’t need to tank because they pretty much control the Brooklyn Nets’ drafts for years.
Spurs – Under 22.5
The San Antonio Spurs don’t have the worst NBA over under picks just by coincidence. This team is looking to get rid of every player that might help them win a single basketball game, and you know Gregg Popovich is a guy who always commits to his strategy.
The Spurs are aiming for Victor Wembanyama and will do whatever is in their power to land that first-overall pick next season. So, they’ll shamelessly tank their way throughout the season, and it won’t be pretty to watch. This team could remind us of the 7-59 Charlotte Bobcats.