Predictions and picks for Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season

Even if so much of Week 10 reminded us why we love the NFL, it’s time to quickly pivot and start thinking about our NFL Week 11 predictions for 2022.

As we think about our NFL picks for today, it’s clear that the 32 teams are starting to separate themselves into teams in playoff contention and teams not in playoff contention. Of course, teams falling out of the playoff picture can sometimes be tricky to predict.

NFL Week 11 predictions 2022

As always, we put a lot of deep thought into our NFL Week 11 picks. We don’t see all of our NFL Week 11 predictions for 2022 coming true.

But at least heading into this week’s games, we feel good about both our NFL picks against the spread and our NFL picks straight up. Let’s take a closer look at our NFL Week 11 picks and why we feel good about these picks.

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Lions vs Giants

It might be time for oddsmakers to start believing in the Giants a little more. They’ve won five of their last six games, all of which were decided by at least four points. In recent weeks, we’ve had some trepidation about the G-Men covering as a favorite. But with such a small spread in this game, this is one of our easiest NFL picks for today.

To be fair, the Lions have won back-to-back games. But last week’s win was Detroit’s first road win this season. Two of those losses came by lopsided margins.

With a defense this bad, it’s hard to trust the Lions to stay competitive away from home. Plus, the Giants have been solid defensively, which means the Lions won’t be able to force the type of high-scoring games that help to keep them around, allowing the G-Men to cover.

SU Pick: Giants (-168)

ATS Pick: Giants -3 (-118)

Rams vs Saints

It’s shocking to see the Rams be this bad after winning the Super Bowl last season. But in making our NFL Week 11 predictions in 2022, we have no faith in Sean McVay’s team.

They’ve lost three in a row, scoring 17 points or less in all three losses. To add injury to insult, Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford are both question marks to play this week due to injury. The Rams have allowed more than 20 points in six of their nine games, so the Los Angeles defense hasn’t exactly proven it can carry the team. Not even Aaron Donald is near the top in the NFL DPOY odds, which is a rarity.

In fairness, putting faith in the Saints isn’t easy after they’ve lost four of their last five games while scoring just 23 total points in their last two games. The New Orleans offense has been hit hard by injuries with the Saints mulling another quarterback change. But the Saints still have enough defensive talent to shut down the short-handed Rams, especially at home. That should be enough to win and cover.

SU Pick: Saints (-168)
ATS Pick: Saints -3.5 (-104)

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Jets vs Patriots

The Jets have made some big waves this season. But they still can’t figure out the Patriots, who have won 13 straight head-to-head games with Gang Green.

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Also, since the Jets won in Foxboro during the 2010 playoffs, the Patriots have won 11 straight home games against the Jets. That makes this one of our easier NFL Week 11 predictions in 2022.

Plus, Bill Belichick’s team has won four of its last five games, turning things around after starting the year 1-3. In those four wins, the New England defense has held teams to 17 points or less. That should make things a little easier for Mac Jones and the offense. The Jets are far from a sure thing to get their offense cranking behind Zach Wilson, especially on the road, which should allow the Pats to hold serve at home.

SU Pick: Patriots (-168)
ATS Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-102)

Cowboys vs Vikings

Even after beating the Bills on the road, albeit in an utterly crazy and fortuitous way, oddsmakers aren’t showing the Vikings much respect this week, especially at home. We’ve had some questions and concerns about Minnesota, but last week’s game showed that the Vikings are for real.

It also showed that perhaps Justin Jefferson needs to have much higher NFL MVP odds despite not being a quarterback because he’s carrying the Minnesota offense at times. Plus, the Vikings are 5-0 at home despite not playing any team that currently has a winning record in those games.

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Meanwhile, the Cowboys have lost their last two road games. The Dallas defense that was so dominant early in the season has now allowed at least 26 points in three of the team’s last four games.

Dak Prescott has thrown three interceptions in the last two games and didn’t look particularly sharp last week. If the Cowboys can’t contain Jefferson, they might find themselves in a shootout, which is not how they want to win games, giving the edge to Minnesota.

SU Pick: Vikings (+106)

ATS Pick: Vikings +1.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs Chargers

The Chiefs can come close to wrapping up the AFC West with a win this week. They’ve won three in a row since their loss to the Bills and appear to be rounding into form, asserting themselves as the best team in the AFC.

They’ve also had their way with the Chargers over the last decade, winning 14 of the last 17 games in this rivalry. That includes seven straight road wins regardless of whether they were in San Diego or Los Angeles.

However, one thing the Chiefs haven’t done is blow away the Chargers. This matchup ended 27-24 earlier this season while Kansas City’s last two wins at SoFi Stadium both came in overtime.

While the Chargers have flaws, Justin Herbert can keep them in the game, so we’re expecting another close game that will allow the Chargers to beat the spread, even if they don’t get the win.