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Best picks for 2023 NFL win total projections

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One thing football fans should do before the start of the new season is look at NFL win total projections for 2023.

The fun of the season isn’t just about who will win the Super Bowl trophy. It’s also fun for fans to make over/under NFL win total picks based on sportsbooks like BetRivers providing NFL win total projections for 2023. 

NFL win total projections 2023

But rather than be overwhelmed by 2023 NFL win totals for all 32 teams, we just wanted to share our favorite NFL win total predictions for the upcoming season. We took a close look at the NFL win total projections in 2023 for all 32 teams – according to BetRivers – and picked out 10 over/under NFL win total picks that we think are going to pan out.

While we’re happy to share the NFL win total projections in 2023 for all 32 teams from BetRivers, here are our best bets for NFL over/under win totals in 2023.

Preseason NFL win total projections

  • Chiefs – 11.5
  • Eagles – 11.5
  • Bengals – 11.5
  • Bills – 10.5
  • 49ers – 10.5
  • Ravens – 9.5
  • Cowboys – 9.5
  • Jaguars – 9.5
  • Lions – 9.5
  • Jets – 9.5
  • Chargers – 9.5
  • Dolphins – 9.5
  • Saints – 9.5
  • Browns – 9.5
  • Steelers – 8.5
  • Seahawks – 8.5
  • Vikings – 8.5
  • Falcons – 8.5
  • Broncos -8.5
  • Bears – 7.5
  • Panthers – 7.5
  • Packers – 7.5
  • Patriots – 7.5
  • Titans – 7.5
  • Giants – 7.5
  • Raiders – 6.5
  • Colts – 6.5
  • Commanders – 6.5
  • Rams – 6.5
  • Texans – 6.5
  • Buccaneers – 6.5
  • Cardinals -4.5

Bengals Under 11.5

Even before Joe Burrow suffered a calf injury during training camp, casting a little bit of doubt on the season, the Bengals looked like a good team to fade. Keep in mind that the year they went to the Super Bowl, they only won 10 games.


While they are undoubtedly a heavyweight in the AFC, it’s not a certainty that they’re going to steamroll everybody. The Bengals still need some new pieces on the offensive line to gel in order to improve a unit that’s been a disaster in recent years. The Cincinnati secondary also saw a lot of turnover during the offseason, forcing the Bengals to rely on a lot of young players this offseason. Outside of Burrow’s injury, there are some questions about this roster.

Equally important, Cincinnati’s schedule is not easy. The AFC North is arguably the best in football. Games with the Browns and Steelers are never easy, so finishing better than 3-3 within the division isn’t a lock.

Road games against the Titans, 49ers, Jaguars, and Chiefs are all games the Bengals could potentially lose in addition to their three in-division road contests. Even home games with the Rams, Seahawks, Bills, and Vikings could prove tricky, making a 12-5 record or better sounding a little far-fetched.

Texans Over 6.5

Houston has won seven total games over the last two seasons, so on the surface, winning seven games this season may not be the easiest thing. However, the Texans have a new head coach and did have two of the first three picks in the draft. C.J. Stroud will help to rebuild the offense while Will Anderson Jr. can do the same for the Houston defense.

The Texans also made other additions on both sides of the ball during the offseason. The situation at wide receiver should help Stroud avoid a disastrous rookie season.


Where are those seven wins coming from? Well, four games against the Colts and Titans within the division are all winnable. Home dates with the Steelers, Saints, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Broncos, and Browns could all be games where Houston has a fighting chance.

Even road games with the Falcons and Panthers aren’t out of the question. That’s at least a dozen winnable games for a team that had five losses last year by seven points or less and should certainly be ready to take a step forward in 2023.

Vikings Over 8.5

There’s no question the Vikings are going to come back to earth a little after last year’s 13-4 season. But they’re not going to go from being one of the best teams in the NFC North to having a losing record.

Kevin O’Connell had a great season as a rookie head coach last year and still has Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson at his disposal. Even with some questions, it’s hard to envision winning five fewer games than a year ago.

Remember that the Bears and Packers are both lackluster teams while the Lions aren’t a heavyweight just yet. Minnesota should win four or five games against NFC North opponents. Games against the Buccaneers, Panthers, Falcons, Saints, and Raiders are also winnable. Home games against the Chargers, Chiefs, and 49ers aren’t lost causes either, making nine or 10 wins realistic for the Vikings.

Cowboys Over 9.5

After back-to-back 12-win regular seasons, how dare the oddsmakers disrespect Dallas this much? The Cowboys are surely capable of avoiding a three-win letdown in 2023. Granted, they had to cut several players loose to get under the salary cap. But they still have capable skill players and a well-built offensive line. Micah Parsons also leads a defense that has plenty of pieces in place. As long as Dak Prescott is healthy, this should be a 10-win team.

Obviously, no game inside the NFC East will be easy. But playing the Patriots, Rams, Seahawks, and Lions at home provides plenty of winnable games. Even on the road, the Cowboys have a chance to steal games against the Cardinals, Panthers, and perhaps even the Dolphins.

On paper, Dallas might be the third-best team in the NFC, making it hard to envision them not getting double-digit wins barring a disaster.

Steelers Over 8.5

As disappointing as the Steelers have been recently, there is just one season in the last nine years that Mike Tomlin failed to win at least nine games. Even though Pittsburgh failed to reach the playoffs last season, the Steelers still won nine games. Kenny Pickett should be able to make some progress during his second season in the league.

Even if he doesn’t, the Pittsburgh defense remains strong. Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best safeties in the league while T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith might be the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL right now.

In terms of Pittsburgh’s schedule, the AFC North presents some problems. But the Steelers will always be tough at home, even in the division. Outside of the division, home dates with the Jaguars, Titans, Packers, Cardinals, and Patriots are all games the Steelers will fancy themselves to win.

Even Week 1 against the 49ers is a game where Pittsburgh could surprise people. On the road, the Raiders, Texans, Rams, and Colts are all teams the Steelers could potentially beat. All things considered, there are nine wins to be found somewhere on Pittsburgh’s schedule.

Cardinals Under 5.5

Expectations are low in Arizona in 2023, and for good reason. But even with the bar set low for the Cardinals, there is no guarantee they will get over that bar. This is a team that ended last season on a seven-game losing streak and will have a rookie head coach and questions at the quarterback position. Even if Kyler Murray returns sooner than expected, there is no guarantee that will be enough to get things moving in the right direction.

Even some of Arizona’s rookies may not be able to contribute much to a team that needs an infusion of talent.

Arizona’s schedule isn’t exactly favorable with two teams that made the playoffs last season and a third team that’s just two years removed from winning the Super Bowl. The Cardinals are also facing long road trips against the Commanders, Browns, Steelers, Bears, and Eagles, none of which will be easy games for them.

Of their eight home games, six are against teams that made the playoffs last year with the Rams and Falcons being the only two exceptions. With or without Murray, six wins doesn’t seem all that feasible.

Dolphins Under 9.5

The Dolphins might be the toughest bet with regard to 2023 NFL win totals. As a franchise, they have just two 10-win seasons in the last 14 years. Plus, Miami’s entire season is more or less contingent on Tua Tagovailoa remaining healthy, which is anything but guaranteed.

That being said, if Tagovailoa can stay healthy, the Dolphins are in excellent shape. They have a dynamic pair of receivers in Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill while the defense is being organized by Vic Fangio, who’s one of the best defensive coordinators in the game.

To be fair, six of Miami’s 17 games will come against the Bills, Jets, and Patriots. However, home games against the Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Raiders, and Titans are all games in which Miami should be favored. The Dolphins also figure to be a team that can hold their own on the road against quality opponents. At times, Miami looked borderline unstoppable when Tagovailoa was healthy. If he’s able to play a full season, there’s no reason they can’t get to 10 wins.

Seahawks Over 8.5

The Seahawks were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL last year. They are still getting a little disrespected with an over/under of 8.5 wins. But there’s no reason why Seattle can’t match last year’s win total of nine.

Why can’t Geno Smith replicate last year’s success? He still has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, not to mention rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The Seahawks also used a first and second-round pick on defensive players while adding Dre’Mont Jones up front and bringing back Bobby Wagner. They should be better on that side of the ball, taking some of the pressure off Smith.

With only seven games against teams that went to the playoffs last year, Seattle has a favorable schedule to win nine games. Keep in mind that the Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the league. That should bode well for home games against the Panthers, Browns, Commanders, and Steelers, not to mention their home games against division rivals.

In terms of road games, wins over the Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, and Titans aren’t that farfetched. If they can sneak a few wins on the road, winning nine or 10 games seems like a fair expectation for the Seahawks.

Giants Over 8.5

The Giants are another team that’s getting a little disrespected with an over/under of 8.5 wins. All they have to do is match last year’s win total. Brian Daboll had such a great rookie season that it’s hard to envision the G-Men not taking another step forward in 2023. There is continuity with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley and far more depth at wide receiver than a year ago, perhaps helping Jones to improve even more.

Granted, life in the NFC East is never easy. Even Washington won’t be a pushover. But this is the same team that beat the 13-4 Vikings on the road in the playoffs last year. There is no game that the Giants aren’t capable of pulling off a win. If there is any improvement in them from a year ago, the Giants should be able to match the nine wins they collected in 2022.

Packers Under 7.5

The Packers are something of a mystery in 2023. But without Aaron Rodgers, they don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. Even with Rodgers last year, they only won eight games. How is Jordan Love going to do any better? Unless Green Bay’s rather large draft class can make an unexpected impact, the Packers are staring down the barrel of one of their worst seasons in a long time.

To be fair, Green Bay’s schedule only includes six teams that went to the playoffs last year, and one of those games is against the Buccaneers. However, they don’t have as much talent as the Lions and Vikings and they also have to play every team from the deep AFC West. There just isn’t a big margin for error if the Packers expect to reach eight wins, which is why they appear destined to fall short of that mark.

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