Analyzing the over/under trends in the first four weeks of the 2022 NFL season

The first few weeks of a football season are always a learning experience, including the NFL over/under trends in 2022.

For anyone who needs NFL betting explained, the over/under refers to the total number of points scored in a game regardless of what team wins or loses. Betting the totals in the NFL is common and can be a nice alternative to NFL player props or figuring out what teams will win each game. 

NFL over under trends 2022

But what are the NFL over/under trends in 2022 during the early part of the season? Most fans prefer to watch high-scoring games, and the league-wide emphasis on passing has led to plenty of scoring in past years.

However, is that trend continuing in 2022 and how does league-wide scoring compare to previous seasons? Let’s explore some of the NFL over/under trends in 2022 thus far.

Playing down under

Through four weeks, scoring in the NFL appears to be way down. Of the 64 games played during the first four weeks of the season, 39 have been under the pre-game point total while only 25 have hit the over.

That’s nearly 61% of NFL games staying under the point total. Of course, things tend to balance out over the course of a full season. But things have been rather lopsided thus far with more low-scoring games than shootouts. Even in games that have gone to overtime, three of the four have still managed to stay under the point total.

Lions are king of the jungle (and the over)

While most of the league is experiencing signs of a scoring drought, that’s not been the case with the Detroit Lions or any of their opponents.

After four weeks, the Lions are the only team that’s hit the over in all four games in one of the more surprising NFL over/under trends in 2022. It’s not just that the Lions are hitting the over, they are obliterating it. Detroit is the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 35 points per game, but also the worst defensive team in the NFL, conceding 35.3 points per game.

That means their games are averaging a shade of 70 total points per game. Oddsmakers rarely assign over/unders to NFL games that are much above 50 points, so there is almost no way for them to adjust to a team that’s scoring this much while also allowing so many points. In other words, every game involving the Lions looks like a safe bet to hit the over.

The under water trio

After four weeks, the Lions are the only team in the NFL that’s 4-0 O/U. But on the other end of the spectrum, there are three teams that are 0-4 O/U. Those teams are the Bengals, Colts, and 49ers. This has been a surprise since the Bengals and 49ers were two of the last four teams standing last season. Meanwhile, the Colts entered 2022 with high expectations with the NFL’s leading rusher from last season and new quarterback Matt Ryan leading the way. But things have not gone according to plan for any of these teams.

In Cincinnati, the Bengals have yet to meet expectations, as their offensive line has continued to struggle, causing Joe Burrow to get sacked 16 times in four games. In fairness, things are getting better for the Cincinnati offense while the Bengals have a top-10 defense, which has also kept scoring low.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have been a victim of an unscheduled quarterback change. Jimmy Garoppolo had to take over for Trey Lance midway through Week 2. Lance isn’t the only injured player on the San Francisco offense, which has made things harder for Garoppolo. At the same time, the San Francisco defense has been the best in the league, allowing just 11.5 points per game, which has also contributed to the 49ers being 0-4 O/U.

Finally, there are the 1-2-1 Colts, who are arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL through four weeks. After a breakout season in 2021, Jonathan Taylor has been contained thus far in 2022, as the Colts are averaging just 87.8 rushing yards per game as a team. Ryan hasn’t had the impact most expected from him either, leading to the Colts scoring just 14.3 points per game, which ranks last in the NFL, keeping them under the point total in every game because they’ve failed so miserably to live up to expectations.

Under 21 club

Compared to the college game, NFL games are always low-scoring affairs. But for whatever reason, offenses have been more sluggish than usual in 2022.

After four games, 16 of 32 teams (literally half the league) are averaging less than 21 points per game. Most will quickly point to a lack of quality quarterback play as the problem.

However, teams being led by Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Russell Wilson are all among the teams averaging less than 21 points per game through four games. The quarterbacks we expect to perform haven’t performed to the level we’re accustomed to seeing.

The usual suspects

Of course, while more NFL teams than expected are underperforming, many of the teams we expect to be among league leaders in offense are there.

As mentioned, the Lions are leading the NFL in points scored, which is a surprise. But Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and Josh Allen and the Bills are all among the top five teams in points scored through four games. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles help to round out the top-five offensive teams in the NFL right now, all five of which are averaging at least 28.5 points per game.

However, if you take away the Lions, who are 4-0 O/U this year, the other four teams in the top-five in scoring are a combined 7-9 O/U this year. That stat says all you need to know about the low-scoring nature of the 2022 NFL season through four weeks.