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Previews, odds & picks for 2023 NFL Divisional Round

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With the NFL season down to eight teams, it’s time to make NFL Divisional Round predictions for 2023.

Naturally, now is a good time to make Super Bowl futures picks as well. But to pick a Super Bowl winner, you first half to think about your NFL picks this weekend so you know who will survive the Divisional Round and be one of the last four teams alive.

NFL Divisional Round predictions 2023

  • Jaguars vs Chiefs Best Bet
  • Giants vs Eagles Best Bet
  • Bengals vs Bills Best Bet
  • Cowboys vs 49ers Best Bet

True to its name, Wild Card Weekend had some truly crazy moments. If that’s repeated this week, making NFL Divisional Round predictions for 2023 isn’t going to be particularly easy.

However, we’ve taken a close look at all of the matchups and the betting lines for each game and are now prepared to share with you our Divisional Round picks.

Jaguars vs Chiefs

Unfortunately for the Jags, this appears to be the end of the road. As brilliant as their comeback win over the Chargers was last week, facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead might be a bigger challenge than falling behind 27-0.


To be fair, the Jags are already playing with house money and have nothing to lose, which is why Kansas City should be at least a little scared and taking Jacksonville seriously. But the Jaguars are going to have to play close to perfectly to win this game. Even staying within a touchdown will be a challenge unless the Jags avoid mistakes, which is far from what happened last week.

At the same time, it’s not a stretch to think that Patrick Mahomes is going to be at his best now that the playoffs have arrived. After all, he’s the best player in the league, so he should have no problem rising to the occasion.

Mahomes is 8-3 in the playoffs, including 4-0 in the Divisional Round. Of those eight wins, six have come by more than 10 points. They also beat the Jags by 10 points earlier this season and our NFL Divisional Round predictions for 2023 see a similar result this week.

  • SU Pick: Chiefs (-430)
  • ATS Pick: Chiefs -8.5 (-112)

Giants vs Eagles

Much like Jacksonville, the Giants are another team that’s playing with house money. Nobody expected they’d get this far, so they figure to play free and loose. The difference is the G-Men notched an impressive road victory last week, giving them the confidence that they can do the same this week despite their recent struggles with the Eagles.

With Saquon Barkley, we know the Giants are capable of running the ball and controlling the game that way. But we also saw Daniel Jones play at a high-level last week as both a passer and a runner. Plus, the Giants are 11-2 against the spread this season when they’re an underdog. With the spread more than a touchdown, the G-Men are poised to keep this close and at least beat the spread.

Alas, knocking off the Eagles on the road won’t be easy. The Eagles have won nine straight home games against the G-Men, so a loss would be a huge surprise. Granted, there are some questions about Jalen Hurts, who looked rusty in the only game he’s played since December 18.

But if nothing else, the Eagles will head into this game feeling fresh and healthy after getting a bye week. They are also far from a one-man team, so they should have enough to survive an upset bid from the upstart Giants.

  • SU Pick: Eagles (-350)
  • ATS Pick: Giants +7.5 (-110)

Bengals vs Bills

After everything that’s happened with Damar Hamlin, it’s somewhat fitting for the Bengals and Bills to reunite in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they have to go on the road this week. During the Super Bowl era, the Bills are 13-1 in home playoff games.

Also, despite last week’s ugly win over the Dolphins, they are now 8-1 at home this season. With Josh Allen, the Buffalo offense is always a big-play threat while the Buffalo defense has allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL this season. That’s going to make the Bills difficult to topple at home, even for a team like Cincinnati that’s won nine in a row.

At the same time, it’s hard to imagine these teams being separated by more than a field goal. While the Bengals have some serious injury questions along the offensive line, Joe Burrow has too many great playmakers around him for Cincinnati to go down without a fight.

The Bengals were also an underrated defensive team all season. They will surely be able to keep this game close and beat the spread, even if we think the Bills will end up surviving and advancing to the AFC Championship Game.

  • SU Pick: Bills (-235)
  • ATS Pick: Bengals (+4.5)

Cowboys vs 49ers

We’ll end our Divisional Round picks with our most confident pick. As impressive as Dallas looked on Monday night, Dak Prescott has been far too turnover-prone this season. That’s not a winning formula against the best defense in the NFL, especially with the 49ers holding eight of their last 11 opponents to 17 points or less during their current winning streak. Prescott will have to be perfect for the Dallas offense to consistently move the ball against the 49ers.

Meanwhile, the 49ers continue to shine offensively. Brock Purdy has answered every question posed to the last pick in the draft. More importantly, he has a well-rounded set of playmakers around him with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and others.

That group has helped the 49ers average over 31 points per game over their last 11 games. They’ve scored at least 30 points in eight of those 11 games, including a minimum of 37 points in four straight games. If the 49ers can get anywhere close to that number this week, the San Francisco defense should do enough to make the 49ers win and cover.

  • SU Pick: 49ers (-186)
  • ATS Pick: 49ers -4 (-106)

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