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No matter how good you think you are or how much experience you have, it’s always good to get MLB betting advice.
Of course, those who are new to betting are in the most need of MLB betting advice and some basic baseball betting tips to help them get started. In fact, some novices may still need MLB betting explained to them.
MLB betting advice
That’s why we wanted to put together an MLB betting guide to share with anyone interested in getting a little help.
Of course, all of the baseball betting tips in the world aren’t going to guarantee winning wagers. But by following sound advice and following a set of principles, bettors can avoid making bad choices and position themselves for as much betting success as possible. With that said, here are 10 pieces of MLB betting advice for everyone who bets on baseball to consider.
Ignore heavy favorites
One basic principle of MLB betting is that the juice is not worth the squeeze with heavy favorites. When teams are favored with a moneyline in the area of -200, -250, -300, or greater, the payout is not worth the risk.
While these might seem like easy wins, it’s not a good strategy to make money in the long run. To make any money with this strategy, bettors have to parlay three or four heavy favorites together in one bet.
But it’s in the nature of baseball that heavy favorites will occasionally lose. After all, even the best teams are going to lose 60-70 games every year. On a given night, it’s rare for three or four teams that seem like sure things to all win on the same day, causing a parlay of “can’t-miss” games to lose.
Find in-division underdogs
Some of the best value in MLB betting can be found in underdogs when two teams from the same division are playing.
Playing a division rival tends to level the playing field compared to what the teams look like on paper. The familiarity with the other team and the desire to beat a division foe can give the underdog a better chance of winning. Therefore, taking the underdog in a game between division rivals offers good value because the payout will be higher than betting on the favorite.
Day vs night
One of the best MLB betting tips for novice bettors is to always take note if the game is being played during the day or at night. Day games can often level the playing field between a favorite and an underdog because players on both teams will be tired after playing a night game the previous evening.
At the same time, day games tend to be lower-scoring games because tired position players are facing a rested pitcher. This can give bettors an advantage when betting on the over/under of a game, especially if both teams have one of the top pitchers on the mound.
Avoid parlays
If inexperienced bettors are looking for MLB betting advice, they should be advised to avoid parlays. Unless you’re betting on a somewhat lopsided moneyline, most MLB bets, especially game props or player props, are designed with roughly 50/50 odds.
Putting three or four bets together in a parlay may create the possibility of a big payout, but it’s not likely to be a winning parlay. It takes a considerable amount of experience, expertise, and research to put together a parlay that has a strong chance of winning, which is why bettors should stay away from them.
Consider the ballpark
Oddsmakers always consider the ballpark when creating odds for a game, making it imperative for bettors to do the same. Certain ballparks will be friendlier to pitchers than hitters and vice versa.
This will not only impact the total runs scored in a game but also what team is more likely to take advantage of certain conditions inside the ballpark. Of course, home-field advantage also plays a role, as some teams are far better at home than on the road. But the dimensions of the ballpark will also play a factor in what team has a roster more suited to win that particular game.
Keep the bullpen in mind
Most MLB bettors make each team’s starting pitcher a huge factor in deciding what team they think will win. Obviously, this makes all of the sense in the world. But it’s equally important to look at each team’s bullpen when picking a winner.
If one team has one of the best bullpens in baseball and the other team is ranked toward the bottom in bullpen ERA, that could play a huge factor late in the game.
At the same time, it’s good to be aware of how each team has used its bullpen in recent days. If a key reliever has pitched in back-to-back games, they might not be available for the next game.
In general, the more a team used its bullpen the day before, the worse its chances are of winning the next day. These are little details that play a big role in finding value for any given MLB game.
Stay under
Any reputable MLB betting guide will tell bettors to favor the under when betting on run totals more times than not.
Oddsmakers know that bettors prefer to bet on overs, preferring high-scoring games, which causes them to increase the over/under they might assign to a particular game.
This shifts the advantage toward the under more times than not. If you take the 2022 season as an example, fewer than 10 teams have hit the over in at least 50% of their games. On the contrary, roughly half of the league has hit the under in at least 52% of their games. With such small margins with betting, that’s a noticeable advantage for bettors taking the under.
Go against the public
When betting on any sport, always remember that the oddsmakers are smarter than the betting public. This is true in baseball more than in most other sports.
This is because baseball tends to be more unpredictable from one day to the next. Remember, the worst baseball teams still win 60-70 games per year while the best teams will still lose 60-70 games per year.
This tends to put the betting public at a disadvantage. The remedy for that is to look for games where the public is overwhelmingly betting in a certain direction and bet the opposite.
Live bet against starting pitchers late in games
This is a more advanced maneuver that requires watching a specific game and live betting during that game. But if you’re willing to do that, this can be a lucrative strategy.
Outside of the truly elite pitcher in baseball, most starting pitchers begin to struggle when facing a lineup for the third time in a game.
This is when you want to start betting on particular hitters to get a hit. Obviously, there are other factors to consider, including a hitter’s history against a particular pitcher and whether he’s in a hot streak or been ice cold lately.
But if you’ve been watching a game closely, placing live bets on a hitter you feel is due for a hit the third time he faces a certain pitcher in a game can be a great way to make money quickly.
Don’t bet what you don’t know
This is good advice for betting on any sport, but it rings particularly true with baseball. Don’t bet on teams that you don’t watch frequently or that have players who you don’t know that well. For example, if you’re a fan of a team in the NL East, don’t bet on games involving teams from the AL West because you probably aren’t familiar with their rosters. Until you gain more experience as a bettor, narrow your focus as much as possible to increase the knowledge you have on the teams and players you’re betting on. Anything else is gambling rather than making informed and intelligent bets.
