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Key tips to create a successful NBA betting strategy

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Some gamblers spend years putting together an optimal NBA betting strategy. There are just so many factors to consider when looking at the best way to bet on NBA games, especially considering how much the league has changed over the past decade.

NBA betting strategy

Just like experienced gamblers know what to look for when betting on football, we need to take an in-depth look at every single game when we come up with our NBA betting strategy. This time, however, that could be trickier given how big NBA slates are and the fact that they play so many back-to-back games.

Of course, the naked eye can only tell you so much, and sometimes it’s more than enough to know who’s going to cover the spread or whether a game will fall under or go over the projected total. But we also need to take a look at the stats, both regular and advanced, to make sure before placing a wager.

The NBA is where amazing happens and that also means games can be unpredictable. We’re talking about the best hoopers on Earth going at it every single night.

So, just like we did before when we let you know what to look for when betting on football, we’re going to share some of our NBA betting secrets:


Bankroll management is key

Winning every wager you place isn’t a realistic goal, and it could lead you to make desperate and risky moves you wouldn’t have made otherwise. If your first couple of bets have already lost, don’t try to get it all back with a third wager, especially if you weren’t planning on betting that game in the first place.

Expert bettors are quite disciplined when it comes to bankroll management, hence the key behind their consistent success. One should never bet more than 5% of your total bankroll in a single wager, or go all-in every single day by betting on every game. That’s just not responsible and won’t be sustainable over time.

Parlays aren’t your friend

On the same note, chances are that you’re tempted to bet on big parlays to try and hit a major cash pot every single day. In reality, you may win one or two every now and then, but gambling on parlays exclusively won’t lead you to success.

So, what to do to be a consistent winner, you may ask?

Well, straight bets will always be the way to go to find sustained success. You can also submit teaser bets, which aren’t that fancy but can give you a big edge in point spreads. You can place a parlay bet every now and then with some spare cash, just don’t make a habit out of it.


Look out for injuries

Perhaps the best NBA betting advice you could get right now is always to look out for the injury report. Load management has become prevalent in today’s basketball as stars try to preserve their health for the postseason, especially during back-to-back games.

There’s also the COVID-19 protocol that could force players to miss games right before tip-off. But more than that, with all the tanking and teams trying to get a high draft pick, they could rule out their stars shortly before the game starts. That’s a trend the league is looking to dig deep into.

Strength of schedule matters

We’ve seen this over and over. A team that was supposed to get an easy win suddenly gets blown out by a bottom-feeder, and no one can make up their minds about it. Then, you take an in-depth look at their schedule, and you realize that they’ve been on the road for two weeks straight or that this was their fifth game in seven nights.

Also, there will always be look-ahead matchups. If a team is set to face a contender or a potential playoff rival, the coach is more likely to try and keep his starters fresh and play them on limited minutes vs lesser opponents. He could even choose not to play them at all.


Some teams and coaches seem to have their rival’s number. Regardless of how well they’ve fared throughout the season, some rivals can’t seem to beat other teams. That’s why one should always look up to their recent head-to-head meetings.

There are also interesting trends one could take into consideration. For instance, Kemba Walker is 1-26 vs LeBron James in his career, and James is 46-6 vs the Charlotte Hornets in his lifetime. Sometimes those trends are hard to explain, but it’s still an efficient way to avoid losing.

The ‘it’ factor

Something that comes up more often than not in the NBA betting strategy, and maybe more than in any other league, is the ‘it’ factor. Revenge games are a huge deal in the league, especially when a player left a team on bad terms and is looking to prove his worth and how wrong they were for bailing on him.

There are also big narratives surrounding games that could take a toll on their outcome. Kobe Bryant‘s farewell game saw the Utah Jazz blowing a chance to make the playoffs, and LeBron James’ return to Cleveland after The Decision produced one of the fiercest NBA atmospheres. This is also a factor in Christmas games or in playoff rematches.

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